Are you ready for some football?
Thank goodness the off-season is finally over! Once again it’s September, and because the Toronto Blue Jays are completely out of the MLB playoff picture (again) I’m getting sick of watching baseball (again). Good news though, the 2008 NFL season starts on Thursday!
I’m back this year with my weekly predictions, but I wanted to try something slightly different. I’ll still pick the games each week, and I’ll still write a bit of a weekly into/re-cap, but instead of writing longer comments for each game, I’m going to try and keep it to one-liners. That should make less work both for the reader, and the writer (aka, me) - but still keep things interesting.
I also want to encourage more conversation with you, the reader. I want to know when I’m “completely wrong” about a pick or which ones you think will turn out differently. The whole point is to have fun with these, so use the comments and tell me what your picks are or what’s on your mind. Honestly, I had debated over the summer about whether or not I was going to do this again, but after hearing from several readers, the decision was made for me. Bottom line: conversation is very welcome!
Week 1 is generally a crap-shoot when it comes to picking games, and this year will probably be no different. Evidence of that would be last year’s 12-4 outcome, compared to the records of 9-7 in 2006 and 2005. Admittedly though, I haven’t been following all the off-season rumors quite as closely as in years past, so that should make things even more interesting. We should get on with this though, so here are my picks for week 1:
| Away | Home | Comments | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last year’s record: 178-89 (66.7%) | ||||
 Redskins(0-0) |
 Giants(0-0) |
Bold prediction: The Giants will not make the playoffs this year. They should win this week though. | |
|
 Lions(0-0) |
 Falcons(0-0) |
Is Jon Kitna predicting 10 wins again this season? | |
|
 Bengals(0-0) |
 Ravens(0-0) |
Baltimore has lots of questions at the quarterback position right now. | |
|
 Seahawks(0-0) |
 Bills(0-0) |
I think the Bills finally have a true #1 quarterback in Trent Edwards. | |
|
 Jets(0-0) |
 Dolphins(0-0) |
Still seems wrong that Brett Favre is a Jet, but he’ll give that team some pop and should help them get close to a wild card berth. | |
|
 Chiefs(0-0) |
 Patriots(0-0) |
As long as Tom Brady stays remotely healthy, the Patriots will be the favourites to win every game they play. | |
|
 Buccaneers(0-0) |
 Saints(0-0) |
Last year I had a lot of trouble picking the Saints because it seemed like every time I did, they never came through for me… so I’m picking them again! | |
|
 Rams(0-0) |
 Eagles(0-0) |
Philly is always tough at home. | |
|
 Texans(0-0) |
 Steelers(0-0) |
Houston has done a lot of work to improve their team and I think we’ll see them fighting for a spot in the postseason this year, but Pittsburgh is still the better team right now. | |
|
 Jaguars(0-0) |
 Titans(0-0) |
The Jaguars may have closed the gap in the AFC South and could compete with Indy for the division title. | |
|
 Cowboys(0-0) |
 Browns(0-0) |
Derek Anderson’s health is key to the Browns success this season. | |
|
 Panthers(0-0) |
 Chargers(0-0) |
Shawne Merriman is good, but his decision to forgo surgery and play with torn knee ligaments (when every doctor he saw advised him to have surgery) is just stoopid. | |
|
 Cardinals(0-0) |
 49ers(0-0) |
Kurt Warner has 1 final chance to prove that he can still be a quality starter in the NFL this season and if he’s good, the Cardinals could make the playoffs. | |
|
 Bears(0-0) |
 Colts(0-0) |
As long as Peyton Manning is starting under center, it’s going to take a lot for me to pick against the Colts. | |
|
 Vikings(0-0) |
 Packers(0-0) |
If Aaron Rodgers thought the spotlight on him was bright already, just wait until they open the season on Monday Night Football in Lambeau Field. | |
|
 Broncos(0-0) |
 Raiders(0-0) |
The Raiders have made some decent acquisitions this off-season, but they still haven’t convinced me that they’ll finish any better than 4th place in their division. | |
|
If you’re new to my picks, here is a quick intro. Each week, I’ll try and get them posted by Tuesday evening, but I’m going to reserve the right to change those picks right up until game-time in the event of any significant injury to a key player or other news that may arise (player acquisition, suspension, etc.). It’s very rare that I actually do change my picks (because usually 1 player won’t make that much of a difference), but in the unlikely event that it happens, I will clearly note it on each page with the date and time that I made the change.
As the games end, I’ll update each post as quickly as I can to indicate the result of each prediction. Once all games for the current week are over, I’ll make sure to post the week’s final tally at the end and may even offer some closing thoughts on the week that was.
Each year, I’ve generally gauged my success against those who call themselves “experts” over at ESPN, and for the most part I’ve done very well. Their weekly Expert Picks are the ruler that I’ve measured myself against ever since starting these picks back in 2005, so I’ll stick with that again this year and we’ll see how things shake out come January.
Speaking of January… here are my super-quick (and probably way off) picks for who will make it to the playoffs in each conference:
AFC: Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Steelers. Wild cards: Jaguars, Jets.
NFC: Cowboys, Saints, Seahawks, Packers. Wild cards: Vikings, Eagles.
So there they are, the first predictions of the 2008 NFL Regular Season. Who are you picking?
Comments // rss
Ryan // #
Sep 3, 2008 // 2:05 pm
Here we go, and to answer your question, YES I am ready for some football.
I’ll be starting out week one in good company, with the Packers in Lambeau field, on Monday Night, against bitter rivals the Vikes, where the first new QB since 1992 will make a start for my first football game ever. Me and the wife are making the road trip to “God’s Country” and couldn’t be more excited.
I think we both looked at the off season differently. A lot of teams added some great acquisitions to their teams, but for the most part were all in areas that needed the least attention. The Eagles for one. They will be fighting to stay out of the basement with the Giants the whole season. And therefore will not make the playoffs as you so boldly predict. And that seems as good as any segue into your first pick to start the season. Washington over the Giants. I just don’t think the magic of that playoff run will be there. The faerie dust has run out. They have lost a ton of their (only) greatest area of the game, d-line.
If you recall last year, I was completely embarrassed by the Ravens. I picked them as the champs and they failed completely. They won’t embarrass me this year, but I’m not gonna pick them for the Bowl. They will however dust the Bengals in week one. I think the Ravens got some great draft value in their first two rounds and picked up some potential sleepers in Flacco and Rice. Both will have their growing pains, but both will impress.
Bucs over Saints, no comment though. I really don’t care for either team or know enough about either.
My upset of the week, Texans over the Steelers. The Texans are on the bubble, and I believe they will step up to the task this year. Mario Williams will have a breakout year, considering he’s coming off of 14 sacks, that’s quite a statement.
AFC: Pats, Colts, Chargers, Browns. WC’s: Jaguars, Texans (because stranger things have happened, like the Giants beating the Pats).
NFC: Cowboys, Panthers, Seahawks, Packers. WC’s: Cardinals, Vikings.
Here’s to a good year. And as usual, GO PACK GO!
Mick // #
Sep 3, 2008 // 2:27 pm
Your picks are ok, I differ on a few. I picked both Washington and Seattle on the road (though I’m wavering on Seattle). Washington I think will be good. I also think Tennessee and Cleveland will win at home. We’ll see though…
Jonathan Eckmier // #
Sep 3, 2008 // 3:01 pm
@Ryan: You’ve called out exactly why I think the Giants will drop off significantly this season. They really have some big holes in their defense with the loss of Umenyiora and the retirement of Strahan, who really were the personality of that unit.
The Ravens and Texans I think could be good, but my guess is that it takes them a couple of weeks to really start firing on all cylinders, and that’s why I’ve picked against them this week.
The Eagles will go as Donovan McNabb goes this year. All indications are that he’s back to form (although I think I’ve heard that before) and if that’s true, the Eagles have a chance.
Have fun at Lambeau man, that’s going to be an awesome trip! Du du du du du du… GO PACK GO!!!
@Mick: I’m wavering on the Bills over Seattle, so your pick is just as good as mine ;).
I think it’s going to take a lot for the Titans or the Browns to pull of a win this week, and because of the reasons I mentioned to Ryan, you could very well be right about the ‘Skins.
Nate // #
Sep 3, 2008 // 5:06 pm
I’ve been reading your picks for a few years now. I’m glad you decided to do it again this year.
Anyway, I’ve notice that you picked every single favorite this week. The thing is, I can’t say as if I disagree with any of the picks…I guess they are all favorites for a reason, and it IS week 1. We’ll know more later.
I’m a Bills fan, by the way. I liked your comment about Trent Edwards; I hope you are right. I think you are. We just need Jason Peters to show up now.
Go Bills!
Jonathan Eckmier // #
Sep 3, 2008 // 8:33 pm
Hey Nate, thanks for the comment!
Yeah, it’s usually safest to go with the favourites in week 1, even if it is a little on the chicken side ;)
Being that you’ve admitted you’re a Bills fan (and me being in Toronto), I’m curious what you think about the Bills playing here this season? I’m sure we’ll have more chance to discuss it down the road as the game in Toronto (vs. Miami) gets closer, but if you happen to come back and see this comment this week, I’d be interested to know what you think.
Chris // #
Sep 4, 2008 // 12:51 am
I was wondering when you would post these! I can’t wait for tomorrow night… my wife, on the other hand, hates this time of year.
Todd // #
Sep 5, 2008 // 10:50 am
OK now, I think Buffalo’s close proximity to Canada has you a bit biased…there is NO WAY they’re going to beat the Seahawks. With that said, been reading your stuff for the past two seasons and really like the effort you put into it. Keep up the good work.
Jonathan Eckmier // #
Sep 5, 2008 // 11:42 am
@Chris: I would bet that many a wife are in the same boat as your’s!
@Todd: Hah! I assure you there’s absolutely no bias from my part for the Buffalo Bills. On the contrary, their proximity to the Canadian border means we get far too many Buffalo Bills games on TV because (according to studies done by our broadcasters) the Bills are the “favourite” team in southern Ontario. I find this a little annoying to be honest, and that probably has led to my slight distaste for the Bills.
I have never been a fan of the Bills, I just think they have a better team this year and Seattle has a lot of questions (but should still win the division in the weak NFC West). I could be wrong though, but we’ll have to wait to see how it shakes out.
I will however make no apologies for my bias towards the Green Bay Packers. :)
Tracy // #
Sep 6, 2008 // 6:36 pm
I am also glad you decided to do this again this year. I truly look forward to your insight and comments. I am really excited to see how Green Bay and the Jets each do this year. Should be fun to watch!
That being said, my only difference in opinion on your picks is I picked The Falcons over the Lions. Seems the Lions alwasy lose when I pick them. Also did NOT pick the Saints. They lose even more when I pick them. :)
Again, glad you are doing this again.
sue // #
Sep 8, 2008 // 4:00 pm
Hi, I too am glad you are doing this again, for some reason I understand football when I read your pick on the games, see every Sunday about 5-8 guys come over to watch the games, and how great it is for me to see their faces when I can join in the conversation, and know what I’m talking about!!
Troy // #
Sep 9, 2008 // 2:00 am
I’ve been ready for some football for about 7 months. I’ve been checking your picks for 2 years but have never commented on them. I think this year I may just start to. I appreciate that you went with the Saints even though they always blow it for you. That will change this year hopefully.
I missed Atlanta, Tennessee, Carolina and Chicago. I was kind of on the fence with the Tennesse game but the other 3 blew my mind. I think that Carolina got lucky, Peyton Manning had a bad night (Maybe Sorgi should’ve started) and Detroit…. well Detroit is horrible…. again.
I look forward to seeing your picks for week 2. I’m already lost on half!!!