NFL Week 4 Predictions
Last week was a great week of predictions, but unfortunately I was let down by 3 quality teams. The Patriots imploded at home (in epic proportions too), the Colts brand new stadium smells sour from 2 straight Indianapolis losses, and the Packers offense (& defense for that matter) was lousy against the Cowboys last week. Sure, the Packers & Colts losing was something that could’ve been predicted, but nobody saw the Patriots losing to the Dolphins.
So what happened in New England anyways? Well, so far their defense has been the unit that’s keeping the Pats in games, something I mentioned in last week’s post. The offense under Matt Cassel just isn’t the same, and that’s OK - you can’t replace a Tom Brady. Under Brady though, the Pats had a lot of “big play potential” that just isn’t there in the Cassel version of the Patriot offense, so they just aren’t built for big comeback victories any more.
Give Miami credit though, they jumped out to an early lead and didn’t allow New England to score a touchdown until half way through the 3rd quarter. By that time, the Dolphins were up 21-3, and didn’t look back. Unfortunately, New England’s defense just didn’t play well and their offense, which is still adjusting to life without Brady, couldn’t generate enough points to keep it close. I thought the growing pains would happen, but I just didn’t think we’d see them against Miami. Also, it was awfully weird seeing people leaving Gillette Stadium early… that just doesn’t happen.
Enough about that though, here are my picks for week 4:
| Away | Home | Comments | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Note: the Colts, Dolphins, Giants, Lions, Patriots and Seahawks have a bye this week. | ||||
| Last week: 13-3 (81.3%), Season total: 35-12 (74.5%) | ||||
 49ers(2-1) |
 Saints(1-2) |
Pushing Denver to the brink of defeat was enough to convince me that the Saints should be able to beat the 49ers this week. | |
|
 Packers(2-1) |
 Buccaneers(2-1) |
Tough loss for Green Bay last week, and losing Al Harris for the season could be even tougher… but I’ve gotta stick with the Pack. | |
|
 Broncos(3-0) |
 Chiefs(0-3) |
As long as Denver’s offense continues to put up a large point total, they’ll be tough to beat… and they’re playing the Chiefs this week. | |
|
 Vikings(1-2) |
 Titans(3-0) |
The Titans are the class of the AFC South? It may be true. | |
|
 Texans(0-2) |
 Jaguars(1-2) |
The Jaguars got right back on the horse last week by beating the Colts in Indianapolis. They need another win to keep pace with Tennessee. | |
|
 Browns(0-3) |
 Bengals(0-3) |
Finally the Bengals offense woke up last week in the loss to Philadelphia. Battle of Ohio round 1 should go to the cats as long as the offense plays well. | |
|
 Falcons(2-1) |
 Panthers(2-1) |
Tough loss for Carolina last week after 2 weeks of euphoria, but they should be able to get another W this week. | |
|
 Cardinals(2-1) |
 Jets(1-2) |
The Jets need to get better fast, on all sides of the ball. | |
|
 Chargers(1-2) |
 Raiders(1-2) |
The Chargers almost need to win this game as much as last night’s game against the Jets. If they get beaten by the lowly Raiders, the panic will return. | |
|
 Bills(3-0) |
 Rams(0-3) |
The Bills have a solid team this year and should be penciled into the playoffs already. The Rams? Not so much. | |
|
 Redskins(2-1) |
 Cowboys(3-0) |
Dallas is clearly the class of the NFC and as long as their defense keeps improving, they’ll be hard to pick against. | |
|
 Eagles(3-0) |
 Bears(1-2) |
Chicago’s defense is getting good at coughing up leads late in games. They may not have a lead to cough up this week though. | |
|
 Ravens(2-0) |
 Steelers(2-1) |
This game will not be as exciting as the last 2 MNF games… unless you love a good defensive bout. Pittsburgh by 3… maybe. | |
|
So far I’m doing quite well against the Expert Picks over at ESPN and hopfully I can continue that success this week. There really isn’t any one game in week 4 that I would consider a marquee matchup, but it should be exciting nonetheless. Who are you picking?
Comments // rss
Tracy // #
Sep 24, 2008 // 4:13 pm
Gee- My picks are the same as yours this week. I can’t believe the Jets let me down last week and cost me the football pool! GRRRR! Guess that is what I get for picking against my “old home team” San Diego! LOL!
(BTW-I won’t be picking my *new* “home team”of KC anytime soon though. ROFLOL! )
I really hope Brett Farve and the Jets can get it together this week.
Jonathan Eckmier // #
Sep 24, 2008 // 5:26 pm
@Tracy: Yeah, any games involving the Chiefs or the Rams are automatic “pick the opposing team” games for me, at least for the foreseeable future.
I also hope that the
shipjet gets righted in NY sometime soon and Favre makes us all see why he came out of retirement. As long as he’s enjoying himself and having fun (which he clearly hasn’t been over the last 2 games) it’ll be worth it.The Jets have had a tough opening schedule, but their next 4 games (vs. Arizona, vs. Cincinnati, at Oakland and vs. Kansas City) are definitely winnable games for them, so hopefully we’ll see Favre and the Jets having some fun in October.
Ryan // #
Sep 26, 2008 // 9:46 am
I’m picking the Cards over the Jets. Arizona didn’t travel this week, they stayed in the east. But the biggest reason I’m picking them is because the Cards allow a remarkably low amount of points for the yards they surrender. And the Jets are the complete opposite.
I’m also going against the grain and taking the Bears this week. I’m looking for them to correct their defensive meltdowns as of late. I don’t care what anyone says, when you’re top two superstars are at 70%, you are an average team again and vulnerable. They came up big against leading teams last year too. It should be interesting to see if they bounce back this week, or make a deflated flop again.
Ryan // #
Sep 26, 2008 // 9:58 am
@Tracy If Herm Edwards ever gets fired, prepare to root for the “new” home team.
Jonathan Eckmier // #
Sep 26, 2008 // 10:00 am
@Ryan: your assessment of the Jets is fair, and I can’t really argue with that… but do you really think the Bears have the offense to knock off Philly?
I think they have a defense that could suppress some of the Eagles offense (mainly the running game with Westbrook iffy for this week), but not all of it. The Eagles are putting up an average of 30 points per game (an impressive 37 against Dallas remember), and I just don’t see the Bears being able to score enough to offset that. Just my 2¢ though.
Ryan // #
Sep 26, 2008 // 10:54 am
@Jon The Bears hung 24 points on an arguably tough Bucs Defense. Among the best defensive units in the NFC last year. If their D plays for 60 minutes like they’ve played for 50 minutes in the last two games, I think they win by 3 to 5 points. 20-17 Bears.
Jonathan Eckmier // #
Sep 26, 2008 // 5:01 pm
@Ryan: The Bucs defense may have been good last year… but so far in the early going this year, they’re one of the worst defenses in the NFL (in terms of total defense, yards per game). They’re currently sitting in 26th place. It gets a little better when you look at total points though, as the Bucs are in 9th place, allowing an average of 19 points per game.
Looking at those numbers, it’s not that impressive that the Bears put up 24 points especially if you consider the fact that Brian Griese (Bucs QB) gave them more opportunities than they should have had by tossing 3 interceptions. I don’t see Donovan McNabb giving Chicago that many extra opportunities to score.
Philly on the other hand is currently sitting at 4th best in the league in total defense and 7th best in points allowed per game (16.7), despite allowing Dallas to put up that big 41 in week 2. That means in week 1 and week 3, Philly only allowed a combined total of 9 points.
Admittedly it’s a small sample size, but I still think Philly’s defense will give the Bears and Kyle Orton a much more difficult time than the Buccaneers did last week.
Ryan // #
Sep 26, 2008 // 5:06 pm
@Jon
“Admittedly it’s a small sample size, but I still think Philly’s defense will give the Bears and Kyle Orton a much more difficult time than the Buccaneers did last week.”
I agree. I like your numbers on the Bucs, I didn’t realize that they were so much more suck than their record suggests. I thought it was business as usual in Tampa Bay. But from that quote of yours above, I think Philly will also see a very different Bears defense than the Bucs saw last week.
Oh well, that’s why they play the games.