NFL Week 5 Predictions

October 3, 2006, 6:31 PM | 8 Comments

Last week was full of surprises and many crazy outcomes. I had a horrible week of predictions, but I knew I had taken a few risks last week in the first place. Unfortunately, those risks didn’t pay off for me, but that’s the exciting part of the NFL… you never know what’s going to happen and there are no guarantees.

It was good to see the 5-game suspension that the NFL handed down on Tennessee’s Albert Haynesworth for that crazy stomping incident. The suspension will cost Haynesworth approximately $500,000.00 based on his 1.6 million dollar salary for this season. It speaks volumes about new commissioner Roger Godell’s office and what kind of policies we can expect from them. Some may argue that the suspension isn’t long enough, and I would tend to agree with them, but you have to look at the fact that this is the longest suspension ever handed down by the NFL for an on-field incident (by 3 weeks) and is actually longer than most people were expecting.

After last week, I’ve made a few decisions about some teams that I was a little unsure of. The New York Jets are for real. If they get a few bounces going their way, they could really give New England a run for their money in the AFC East, which may be a tighter division than first expected if Buffalo keeps playing the way they have. Also in the AFC East, the Miami Dolphins will not make the playoffs. It really is sad to see Daunte Culpepper struggling so much, but I’m getting kind of sick of hearing the excuse that it’s the knee injury that’s causing all his troubles. All you have to do is take one look at the season Carson Palmer has had so far to see that there’s more to Daunte Culpepper’s problems than a lingering knee injury that happened last October.

The New Orleans Saints are also for real. Even though they didn’t win in Carolina on Sunday, they still lead the NFC South and have played extremely well against some good teams so far this season. If they can continue to play consistently, they’ll go pretty far this season. They may not make it deep into the playoffs, but they’ll turn a lot of heads and make a lot of people in Louisiana happy to finally have a good team to cheer for.

Monday Night Wrap-Up:

In the first half, Green Bay played really well, which made me pretty happy… but then in the second half it all fell apart. Brett Favre threw 2 interceptions that led to Eagles touchdowns and while the first one was not his fault, the 2^nd interception was clearly a bad decision. The Eagles started pretty slow, but really did everything right in the 2^nd half and showed how much depth their team has after losing a few significant players (Westbrook and Stallworth to name a couple) to injuries.

Green Bay needs to get rid of cornerback Ahmad Carroll, who is probably former GM Mike Sherman’s biggest waste of a draft pick. Carroll may have had some success in college, but he has been a bust in the NFL. Sherman was ripped when he used a first round pick on Carroll and #28 hasn’t done anything since then to show that he didn’t deserve that criticism. This is a guy that defenses love to throw deep on, because he’s been called for seemingly more pass interference penalties in his first three years than a guy like Deion Sanders got called for in his entire career. (Yes, I’m exaggerating on purpose). At any rate, Carroll got burned on at least 5 different plays last night, either resulting in a catch by the receiver he was “covering” or an interference/illegal contact penalty.

Note: When I wrote most of this entry (late Monday night), Ahmad Carroll was still a member of the Green Bay Packers. At time of publishing though, Carroll has already been cut. Good move by the Pack.

I’m going to continue my rant by questioning the Packers management and coaching staff. If you take a look at the Packers defense and how much talent is on that team, it doesn’t make any sense that the Packers have the second worst (31^st ranked) defense in the NFL. Last year, Jim Bates turned the 25^th ranked 2004 Packers defense around and they were ranked 7^th in 2005. Losing Jim Bates has been a huge loss for a Packers defense that is loaded with speed and has a significant level of talent. When Bates didn’t get the head coaching job in Green Bay, I thought that was a huge oversight by GM Ted Thompson and the hiring of Mike McCarthy really made me scratch my head. Having said that, I’m not ready to write off McCarthy now that he is the head coach (I think they’ll need to see how he does next year first), I just don’t think that Thompson should’ve hired him in the first place.

Week 5 Game of the Week: Cowboys at Eagles.

OK, I know what you’re thinking, but even without the sideshow that is TO, this game will be big and has definite playoff implications. The Cowboys and Eagles are in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL with the Redskins and Giants, both of which are also playing each other this weekend. Terrell Owens’ return to Philadelphia is going to be extremely interesting to watch. The Eagles will try to prove that they’re a much better team without TO, and Owens will try to prove to Philadelphia that they should’ve given him all the money he was asking for.

My opinion is that the Eagles are better off without Terrell Owens. Sure, you cannot replace his talent, but the Eagles are a stronger team without all his baggage and Donovan McNabb is showing everyone that he’s still the same quarterback that lead the team to 3 straight NFC championship games.

I’m guessing that one of the NFC wild card spots will come from the East division, so either way, this game will probably have a part to play in the final NFC playoff seedings. It’ll be a fun game to watch because of all the stories and the love that the fans in Philly are going to show TO, but despite all that, it should be a very close, hard fought match.

This week’s ESPN Expert Picks, and my predictions for week 5:

Away	Home	Comments	Pick	Result
Bills (2-3)	Bears (5-0)	There’s no question in my mind that the Bears are the best team in the NFC right now.
Browns (1-4)	Panthers (3-2)	Steve Smith is obviously Carolina’s most valuable player, and with him back in the lineup the Panthers are a better team. The Browns barely got their win over the Raiders last week, so the Panthers should be able to get an easy W.
Lions (0-5)	Vikings (3-2)	All 4 of Minnesota’s games so far have been decided by 5 points or less. The Lions have been giving up a lot of points lately, but they’ve also been scoring a lot. Minnesota’s defense proved that they’re pretty good against the Bears in week 3. This game could be really close, so I’ll stick with the better team… the home team.
Dolphins (1-4)	Patriots (4-1)	Well… on paper (at least so far this year) it should be an easy Patriots victory. But, if you look at the last few seasons, the Patriots have always struggled against the Dolphins. This game could be close, but I expect the Pats to win.
Rams (4-1)	Packers (1-4)	Last week Marc Bulger threw for 328 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Lions. Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Kevin Curtis are still one of the top wide receiver sets in the game and should run all over Green Bay’s struggling secondary. This game could turn into a shootout if the Packers offense can get back on track. I’d really like to pick the Packers, but I just don’t see it happening.
Buccaneers (0-4)	Saints (4-1)	The Saints have played some good football this season. The Buccaneers have not and will be starting some quarterback that I’ve never heard of before. Another game in the Superdome should mean another win for the Saints.
Titans (0-5)	Colts (5-0)	Peyton Manning is always on his game against divisional opponents. So far it looks like the Titans are in for a very long season.
Redskins (2-3)	Giants (2-2)	What an exciting win for the Redskins last week! New York seems to be struggling lately, which makes this pick a bit difficult, but the Redskins are coming off 2 big victories in a row. After beating the Jaguars in overtime last week, I think the Redskins have the edge in this game.
Chiefs (2-2)	Cardinals (1-4)	I really do feel bad for Kurt Warner, but he’s just not the same guy who won 2 MVP awards and led the Rams to 2 Super Bowls. The Chiefs completely dominated the 49ers last week and will have a tougher time against the Cardinals, but the Cards have the same old problems on their offensive line and their defense can’t stop anyone.
Jets (2-3)	Jaguars (3-2)	Jacksonville has now suffered 2 hard-fought losses in a row. I think they’ll get back on track at home this week, but it will probably be a close game if the Jets continue their strong play.
Raiders (0-4)	49ers (2-3)	After getting blown out last week again the Chiefs, the 49ers should bounce back with a win… but only because they’re playing the Raiders. Memo to the Raiders: FRO the ball to Randy! 7 receptions in 3 games is not nearly enough.
Cowboys (2-2)	Eagles (4-1)	TO returns! This game is going to be big. I expect that Drew Bledsoe will be sacked a few times by Philadelphia’s defense led by 2nd year man Trent Cole (who is currently tied for the league lead in sacks with 5).
Steelers (1-3)	Chargers (3-1)	This week will go a long way to help determine where exactly the Steelers are at. They’ve lost 2 straight and haven’t looked very good. Did their bye week help at all?
Ravens (4-1)	Broncos (3-1)	Last week the Ravens got a big win against the Chargers. Playing in Denver is always tough, but I think the Ravens defense will keep them in this game and probably cause a couple of turnovers that could get them the win.
Note: the Falcons, Bengals, Texans and Seahawks have a bye week this week.

One final note: if Brian Westbrook is still out of Philadelphia’s lineup on Sunday, I’m going to switch my pick to Dallas. Philly may have won against the Packers on Monday night without Westbrook, but they really are a one-dimensional offense without him and that won’t be enough to get by the Cowboys.

Be sure to check back after the games for updates and more thoughts on week 5.

Update: Well, I had a pretty good bounce-back after going 7-7 last week with 12 correct predictions this week. That brings my total for this season to 50-24. Week 5 was some pretty good football. Check back tomorrow for my week 6 predictions.

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