December 19, 2006

NFL Week 16 Predictions

December 19, 2006, 5:51 PM | 8 Comments

With only 2 weeks left in the regular season, there are still a lot of questions to be answered. Both conferences (the AFC and the NFC) have extremely muddy playoff pictures heading into this holiday weekend, and it doesn’t look like much will be decided by this week’s games.

For more playoff coverage, check out ESPN’s current playoff picture and clinching scenarios for this week.

Last week was another pretty good week for my picks. I went 12-4 and brought my total up to 138-86. The big story of last week though (in my opinion) was how the Colts responded to their horrible week 14 loss to Jacksonville with a big win over Cincinnati. It’s only one game, but if their defense can build on the success they had last night against the Bengals, they should be able to make a deep run into the playoffs.

I said at the beginning of the year that I think the Colts best chance to get to a Super Bowl is this season and I still stand by that statement. No one knows for sure how long the core group of players (Manning, Harrison, Wayne, Clark, Stokely and the entire O-Line) will be able to stay together and that kind of chemistry takes years to build. If the Colts don’t win this year, they may not have another good chance for several years and Peyton Manning will be past his prime. That said, I don’t think the Colts will be able to win the Super Bowl this season because their defense is still a huge issue. I’d love for it to happen, but I just don’t see them winning unless their defense can fix itself over night.

Week 16 Game of the Week: Bengals at Broncos.

This game will go a very long way in determining the final AFC playoff standings. Both these teams are currently holding onto the wild card spots in the AFC, but a loss by either team would pretty much eliminate them from contention.

Jay Cutler looked really strong last week in their victory over Arizona, but the Cardinals are not exactly among the NFL’s elite and Cutler will have a tougher time against the Bengals defense this week. Keep in mind that Javon Walker suffered a separated shoulder last week that may limit his productivity. Without one of his most explosive weapons, Cutler will need to find a way to spread the ball around to all of his receivers and backs if they even want to compete.

Last week the Bengals offensive game plan didn’t come together as they tried to run all over Indianapolis. The fact that Carson Palmer only attempted 6 passes in the entire first half didn’t help either. If the Bengals want to win games it’s obvious that their passing game needs to get into rhythm quickly and Chad Johnson needs to get involved.

Against the Broncos this week, Chad Johnson will likely be lined up against Champ Bailey, so don’t expect 85 to put up huge numbers this week. Actually, Carson Palmer may have the same task as Jay Cutler - spread the ball around to all your weapons and you’ll probably have success.

Here are my predictions for week 16:

Away	Home	Comments	Pick	Result
Vikings (6-9)	Packers (7-8)	The Pack still has an outside shot at a Playoff berth, but the real question: is this Brett Favre’s final game at Lambeau? I certainly hope not but I expect that emotions will run high and carry the Packers to victory.
Chiefs (8-7)	Raiders (2-13)	The Chiefs have had an up and down season so far, but the Raiders should be easy pickin’s.
Ravens (12-3)	Steelers (7-8)	There’s a good chance the Steelers will win this game, but it will be too little too late for their season. Having said that, I’ll take the Ravens to continue to put the pressure on the Colts for that 2nd first round bye in the AFC.
Panthers (7-8)	Falcons (7-8)	I don’t even want to pick this game. Since I have to make a decision though, I’ll take the Falcons because the Panthers have been consistently bad over the past few weeks.
Bears (13-2)	Lions (2-13)	I’ll defer to this week’s ESPN Power Rankings for this one: “Detroit is 23-71 in the Matt Millen era and he still has a job. That’s the definition of untouchable. He could probably drive a Honda to work and the Ford family would still keep him around.”
Colts (11-4)	Texans (5-10)	Is there any doubt that Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in the game right now? His performance on Monday Night against the Bengals was flawless.
Patriots (11-4)	Jaguars (8-7)	The Patriots can clinch the AFC East title with a win on Sunday in Jacksonville. I’m not sure what to expect when it comes to the Jags, so I’ve gotta take the Pats.
Saints (10-5)	Giants (7-8)	Tough game to call, but with 2 games left if the Saints want that first round bye, they need to win this game.
Buccaneers (4-11)	Browns (4-11)	The question I’m wondering about is this: Even if the Buccaneers win this game will Jon Gruden be job-hunting in the off-season?
Titans (8-7)	Bills (7-8)	Wow, Vince Young doesn’t do much and the Titans still win. That’s how a playoff team should be playing.
Redskins (5-10)	Rams (7-8)	St. Louis still has a tiny chance to enter the playoff picture and will need a win at home this week to stay alive. If they lose though, I won’t mind because it gives the Packers a greater chance of making the 2nd season.
Cardinals (5-10)	49ers (6-9)	As was pointed out last week, I really haven’t given much love to the 49ers this season, so this week I’ll pick them (and Frank Gore) to run all over the Cardinals in San Fran.
Bengals (8-7)	Broncos (9-6)	The Bengals are a much better team than they’ve shown on several occasions this season. The leadership of Carson Palmer will have to show this week and they’ll need some big plays from their offense, but I think Cincinnati has the edge.
Chargers (13-2)	Seahawks (8-7)	L.T. just keeps piling on the records and the Chargers control their own fate when it comes to securing home field advantage. The Seahawks are getting cold at exactly the wrong time.
Eagles (9-6)	Cowboys (9-6)	This is another game with huge playoff implications. Eagles: Win and you’re in. Cowboys: Win and you’re one step closer to winning your first NFC East championship since 1998.
Jets (9-6)	Dolphins (6-9)	The Jets still have a great shot at a playoff berth, but they need to keep winning. Miami will be looking to give the New York the gift of time off in January this Christmas.

Week 16 Game of the Week (#2): Vikings at Packers.

Being the Packers fan that I am, I couldn’t resist at least giving this game some attention. In what could be Brett Favre’s final game at Lambeau Field, I’ll be watching intently as the Packers host their much hated rival Minnesota Vikings. Earlier this season when the Vikings looked like a true playoff contender, Favre and the Packers marched into the Metrodome in Minnesota and left with a win. Since that time the Packers have been fairly consistent (even if it is consistently middle-of-the-road) but the Vikings have taken quite a few steps backwards.

This Sunday the Vikings will start rookie QB Tavaris Jackson in place of Brad Johnson, who has really been struggling lately. With only 4 days to prepare though, I think this gives the Packers a huge advantage coming into this game. Packers’ corners Al Harris and Charles Woodson have been playing extremely well as of late, an I’m expecting a great game from them.

If Green Bay wants to maintain any hopes of making it to the playoffs, they’ll need to win this game. Once you add in all the emotions that will surround the potential “last Lambeau Leap” for Brett Favre it makes for one great game for Packers fans.

Anyways, be sure to check back after the games for updated team records and more thoughts on week 16. Also don’t forget to check out this week’s ESPN Expert Picks.

Update: Another week going 11-5 has brought my total for this season up to 149-91; I’m definitely trying to keep this success rolling. I hope everyone had a great Christmas! Check back sometime on Boxing Day for my week 17 picks, the final week of the regular season.

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