January 2, 2007

NFL Wild Card Predictions

January 2, 2007, 8:19 AM | 8 Comments

Welcome to the New Year and its new beginnings! There are now 12 teams that are in the hunt for the NFL’s ultimate prize, and this weekend 4 of them will drop out of the running. Nothing that the teams have done up to this point really matters anymore, except for the momentum (or lack thereof) they have going into the “second season.”

Last week was another fairly unpredictable week in the NFL, as the trend has been all season long. I faired pretty well though, again grabing 11 correct picks to finish the regular season with a 160-96 total record (or .625). Compared to this point last season, that was only 3 games behind where I finished. When compared with the experts over at ESPN.com, I really held my own this season finishing only 1 pick behind the leading expert (Mike Golic) and beating out every other expert including ESPN’s “Accuscore” automated prediction system. ESPN, I’ll be waiting for your calls. ;)

Closing Thoughts on the 2006-2007 Regular Season:

It was an exciting year, there’s no doubt about it. The regular season finished with quite a few highlights and there are 2 I’d like to point out.

Firstly, how great is it to play for Bill Belichick? Remember last year when he let Doug Flutie attempt (and convert) a drop kick extra point? That was something special for Flutie. This season, Belichick allowed Vinny Testaverde to come into the game in the dying seconds and complete a touchdown pass to give him 20 consecutive seasons with at least 1 TD pass thrown.

Secondly, here’s my take on the Brett Favre situation if you missed my closing comments from last week:

Sunday night’s game was a great game in which I think we may have seen the last of Brett Favre. It was a great win for the Packers, Packers fans, and Favre personally. I really hope he doesn’t decide to retire, but after watching him during the post game interviews and listening to what he said (and how he said it), it almost seems like he’s ready to make his exit. It truly has been a pleasure watching him play the game and the NFL, its fans and the entire Packer nation will miss him. I’ll definitely have more to say on this matter later…

Looking Forward

As the playoffs get under way, there are several very compelling stories that I can’t wait to see play out. Will the Colts be able to stitch together enough defense to give their offense a chance to win some games and get them to the Super Bowl? Will the Cowboys be able to end their late-season tailspin? How will the Jets handle the Patriots now that the Brady/Belichick monster has turned their playoff mode on? And what about the Giants? Will they be able to come together as a team like they did last week against the Redskins to get them into the playoffs?

Obviously, there are no answers to any of those questions at this point, only thoughts, analysis and predictions - so here are mine for the 2007 Wild Card Weekend!

Away	Home	Comments	Pick	Result
Chiefs (9-8)	Colts (13-4)	See below:
This is probably the worst possible match-up that the Colts could have gotten to start their playoffs. The Colts had the league’s worst rush defense and the Chiefs posses the league’s 2nd best running back in Larry Johnson. In what will probably be a very close game, I think I’m still going to have to take the Colts - but I really struggled to make a decision on this one. In the end it comes down to Peyton Manning and the Colts offense. Regardless of how bad their defense plays, Manning should be able to keep them in the game until the final ticks.
Cowboys (9-8)	Seahawks (10-7)	See below:
I think this may be the closest game of the 4 this weekend. Both of these teams have not played very good football during the closing weeks of the regular season. Bill Parcells looks so frustrated with the way his team is playing in Big D. and he should be, because they’ve been terrible the last 2 weeks. Losing to Detroit was probably the most embarrassing loss of the season for the Cowboys and they look like a team who (except for Tony Romo) has lost their confidence. If the Cowboys want to have success in Seattle, I think they’ll need to look to T.O. to make a few game changing plays and carry their offense. I’m giving the edge to Seattle though because this team is full of veterans and coaches who have been to the Super Bowl before. They know what it takes to win in the post season and I’d expect that will be the difference in this game. Whether it comes down to preparation or focus, I think the Seahawks have the advantage and they need to take it.
Jets (9-8)	Patriots (13-4)	See below:
Since they’ve been together, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick possess an almost spotless playoff record and it will be their experience in this atmosphere that will have to carry the team through each round of the playoffs. The Patriots are not the same team they’ve been in years past, but the Brady/Belichick factor remains and that should be enough to get them by the Jets this weekend. The only question mark for the Patriots is that injury to Rodney Harrison last week. As for the Jets, I really admire the job that Eric Mangini has done with the Jets this season, and he should get some legitimate looks for the coach of the year award (although I think Sean Payton is more deserving personally). It’s been a great year for the Jets by all accounts, but I don’t think the year will last any longer than Sunday at about 4:00 PM Eastern.
Giants (8-9)	Eagles (10-7)	See below:
Last week against the Redskins, Tiki Barber proved that if the Giants are going to have any success on offense, he’ll need to be a very large part of their game plan. Unfortunately for the Giants, they’re going to have a much harder time against the Eagles defense than they did against Washington’s. Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson is notorious for developing inventive blitz schemes designed to give opposing quarterbacks fits, and we all know what happens to Eli Manning when he gets flustered. If I had to take a guess, I’d expect the Eagles to blitz early and often, force Manning into a couple of bad turnovers, rock the Giants confidence and jump out to an early lead. The Giants need to come together as one unit if they want any chance at winning this game, because even if Tiki runs all over the Eagles D. it’s going to take more than that to win in Philadelphia, one of the hardest places for opposing teams to play in the NFL.

You’ll more than likely notice that I’ve picked the home team in every case this weekend, and that’s purely coincidence because if any of these games were reversed, I’d still pick the same outcome. When it comes to the playoffs you just have to go with the team that has been the better team at this point, and in every case this weekend it’s the home team. With that said, anything can, and probably will happen now that the playoffs are under way.

Be sure to check back after the games for updates and more thoughts on the Wild Card Weekend. Also, here are this week’s ESPN Expert Picks.

Update: Well, Wild Card Weekend was only mildly exciting, but I started off the playoffs going 4-0 with my picks… not too shabby. Check back Tuesday for my Divisional Playoff picks.

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