Reinspire :: NFL Wild Card Predictions

NFL Wild Card Predictions

January 2, 2007, 8:19 AM | 8 Comments

NFL logo Welcome to the New Year and its new beginnings! There are now 12 teams that are in the hunt for the NFL’s ultimate prize, and this weekend 4 of them will drop out of the running. Nothing that the teams have done up to this point really matters anymore, except for the momentum (or lack thereof) they have going into the “second season.”

Last week was another fairly unpredictable week in the NFL, as the trend has been all season long. I faired pretty well though, again grabing 11 correct picks to finish the regular season with a 160-96 total record (or .625). Compared to this point last season, that was only 3 games behind where I finished. When compared with the experts over at ESPN.com, I really held my own this season finishing only 1 pick behind the leading expert (Mike Golic) and beating out every other expert including ESPN’s “Accuscore” automated prediction system. ESPN, I’ll be waiting for your calls. ;)

Closing Thoughts on the 2006-2007 Regular Season:

It was an exciting year, there’s no doubt about it. The regular season finished with quite a few highlights and there are 2 I’d like to point out.

Firstly, how great is it to play for Bill Belichick? Remember last year when he let Doug Flutie attempt (and convert) a drop kick extra point? That was something special for Flutie. This season, Belichick allowed Vinny Testaverde to come into the game in the dying seconds and complete a touchdown pass to give him 20 consecutive seasons with at least 1 TD pass thrown.

Secondly, here’s my take on the Brett Favre situation if you missed my closing comments from last week:

Sunday night’s game was a great game in which I think we may have seen the last of Brett Favre. It was a great win for the Packers, Packers fans, and Favre personally. I really hope he doesn’t decide to retire, but after watching him during the post game interviews and listening to what he said (and how he said it), it almost seems like he’s ready to make his exit. It truly has been a pleasure watching him play the game and the NFL, its fans and the entire Packer nation will miss him. I’ll definitely have more to say on this matter later…

Looking Forward

As the playoffs get under way, there are several very compelling stories that I can’t wait to see play out. Will the Colts be able to stitch together enough defense to give their offense a chance to win some games and get them to the Super Bowl? Will the Cowboys be able to end their late-season tailspin? How will the Jets handle the Patriots now that the Brady/Belichick monster has turned their playoff mode on? And what about the Giants? Will they be able to come together as a team like they did last week against the Redskins to get them into the playoffs?

Obviously, there are no answers to any of those questions at this point, only thoughts, analysis and predictions - so here are mine for the 2007 Wild Card Weekend!

Away	Home	Comments
Chiefs (9-8)	Colts (13-4)	See below:
This is probably the worst possible match-up that the Colts could have gotten to start their playoffs. The Colts had the league’s worst rush defense and the Chiefs posses the league’s 2^ndbest running back in Larry Johnson. In what will probably be a very close game, I think I’m still going to have to take the Colts - but I really struggled to make a decision on this one. In the end it comes down to Peyton Manning and the Colts offense. Regardless of how bad their defense plays, Manning should be able to keep them in the game until the final ticks.
Cowboys (9-8)	Seahawks (10-7)	See below:
I think this may be the closest game of the 4 this weekend. Both of these teams have not played very good football during the closing weeks of the regular season. Bill Parcells looks so frustrated with the way his team is playing in Big D. and he should be, because they’ve been terrible the last 2 weeks. Losing to Detroit was probably the most embarrassing loss of the season for the Cowboys and they look like a team who (except for Tony Romo) has lost their confidence. If the Cowboys want to have success in Seattle, I think they’ll need to look to T.O. to make a few game changing plays and carry their offense. I’m giving the edge to Seattle though because this team is full of veterans and coaches who have been to the Super Bowl before. They know what it takes to win in the post season and I’d expect that will be the difference in this game. Whether it comes down to preparation or focus, I think the Seahawks have the advantage and they need to take it.
Jets (9-8)	Patriots (13-4)	See below:
Since they’ve been together, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick possess an almost spotless playoff record and it will be their experience in this atmosphere that will have to carry the team through each round of the playoffs. The Patriots are not the same team they’ve been in years past, but the Brady/Belichick factor remains and that should be enough to get them by the Jets this weekend. The only question mark for the Patriots is that injury to Rodney Harrison last week. As for the Jets, I really admire the job that Eric Mangini has done with the Jets this season, and he should get some legitimate looks for the coach of the year award (although I think Sean Payton is more deserving personally). It’s been a great year for the Jets by all accounts, but I don’t think the year will last any longer than Sunday at about 4:00 PM Eastern.
Giants (8-9)	Eagles (10-7)	See below:
Last week against the Redskins, Tiki Barber proved that if the Giants are going to have any success on offense, he’ll need to be a very large part of their game plan. Unfortunately for the Giants, they’re going to have a much harder time against the Eagles defense than they did against Washington’s. Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson is notorious for developing inventive blitz schemes designed to give opposing quarterbacks fits, and we all know what happens to Eli Manning when he gets flustered. If I had to take a guess, I’d expect the Eagles to blitz early and often, force Manning into a couple of bad turnovers, rock the Giants confidence and jump out to an early lead. The Giants need to come together as one unit if they want any chance at winning this game, because even if Tiki runs all over the Eagles D. it’s going to take more than that to win in Philadelphia, one of the hardest places for opposing teams to play in the NFL.

You’ll more than likely notice that I’ve picked the home team in every case this weekend, and that’s purely coincidence because if any of these games were reversed, I’d still pick the same outcome. When it comes to the playoffs you just have to go with the team that has been the better team at this point, and in every case this weekend it’s the home team. With that said, anything can, and probably will happen now that the playoffs are under way.

Be sure to check back after the games for updates and more thoughts on the Wild Card Weekend. Also, here are this week’s ESPN Expert Picks.

Update: Well, Wild Card Weekend was only mildly exciting, but I started off the playoffs going 4-0 with my picks… not too shabby. Check back Tuesday for my Divisional Playoff picks.

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Comments

1. web - January 2, 2007, 12:13 PM

Hey J-Eck (pernounced jeck),

First I want to wish you a happy/healthy/prosperous 2007 and to thank you for your consistent coverage of the NFL here. As a proprietor of useless words on the internet I know how much of a commitment to something like this is. Just wanted to say that and also this, Word to your mom.

Oh boy, I feel like I have some words in me. Here we go!!

I agree with all your picks on the merit of your comments, except that I honestly think that the LJ show is going to be too much for the Indy D. (Maybe that’s more hope/wishing than anything else)

Now I just want to rip on the New York … GIANTS … for a minute. (What did you expect me to talk about the Jets JUST because there playing my Patriots this weekend?? Huh, did you? You’re a racist profiler Jeck and you should be ashamed of yourself. Yeah I said it – everybody’s thinking it you elitist Canadian.)
The Giants are just an awful waste of talent – I personally think that E.Manning will go down in the NFL history books as one of the biggest busts ever. I know he is young, but he has had all the tools and opportunity to be consistent QB and he can’t put it together.

He does not need to be his brother or even a top 5 QB right now. He just needs to be consistent and he cannot do that – and has not done that. I’m going on the record right now. This is the middle of the end for young Eli. 5 more years and at least 2 more franchises will take shots with him and then the Eli experiment will be over. He makes me want to punch kittens*.

I don’t think the Boys of Cow can put it together .. but the Romo-factor is tough to call right now. The Hawks of Sea look equally discombobulated** too so its going to be a silly slap fest to the end but I think Shawn Alexander is too good to be held down for too long. In related news did you hear Romo scored a 9.8 on HotorNot.com? True story. I voted.

Pats win a squeaker. The Jets are good, but not that good. Next year they will be much better. With some more confidence and some more time I think Mangini brings the Jets back to the AFC East with some force. (yey) There is no more room in the AFC for good teams. Don’t even get me stared with the Bills and Dolphins. There are almost no more sure victories in the AFC*** anymore.

Speaking of the AFC cellar, did you know Houston won 6 games. They beat Indy, Jacksonville twice and the Dolphins. Also, If I was Dom Davis I would change my name too .. I mean if I had any fans I would love the fact that they would all need to go out and buy new jerseys because the players name they have no longer exists. He should have changed his name to “Dom Mexico�? and got traded to the Raiders. That would have been awesome!!!

Cheers.

I totally hijacked this post.

* Not really
** I made a New Years resolution to use “Discombobulated” more in daily speech, its working well for me right now.
*** This statement will be will be untrue until the Raiders move to the newly created division, MFC (Mexican Football Conference) and are dubbed the “Tijuana Tacos�?

2. Jonathan Eckmier - January 2, 2007, 7:26 PM

Hey Web! Well, you’re currently in line for the longest comment award for 2007 and there’s only 363 more days to go to find out whether or not you’ll get to claim that prize! ;)

But seriously, thanks for the comment and you’re welcome, it’s been a fun year of prognosticating and I’ve been enjoying the response from all the readers!

I think I kind of agree with the assessment of Eli Manning, but I think the problem is two-fold. First, no matter what anyone says, everyone wants and expects him to be Peyton Manning. Second, like you alluded to, I think he’s trying too much to be like his older brother and it’s clearly not working for him. I don’t think I’m ready to put him in the Ryan Leaf category just yet though, but who knows what next season will bring.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens to the “Boys of Cow” during the off-season. From everything I’ve heard, Bill Parcells does not want to have the Owens of Terrell around next season and seems willing to tell owner Jerry Jones “it’s me or him!” Again, we’ll have to wait and see.

Thanks for hijacking my post!

3. Rockwell - January 4, 2007, 1:20 AM

Hey J.E….

First, congrats on your record and a great football column.

I have to agree with you on Favre. His tears said it all. He is a class act. I’m glad I was wrong with my Bears prediction. Nice to see him go out on a win, if that is what is going to happen.

As for the picks, I have learned nothing. I should come here before I post my own.

I’m picking the Cowboys over Seattle… both teams are having difficulties. And the Chiefs over the Colts… Herm Edwards has a tough D… and there is that running back they have, right?

Okay, now have we taken the post back yet? Not going for any record… web did cover all the bases pretty well though.

4. Jonathan Eckmier - January 4, 2007, 12:42 PM

Rockwell, the Cowboys could definitely pull out the win over Seattle, and easily if everything comes together; Dallas certainly has the talent to be able to make a major run at the Super Bowl. The problem though is that much like the Giants, talent hasn’t automatically equated to wins for the ‘Boys. It takes coming together in unity as a team to accomplish the same goal and that’s why I think a lot of teams should be a little scared of the Eagles at this point.

5. Rockwell - January 4, 2007, 1:03 PM

J.E….

Yes, I’ve seen the statistical comparison between the Eagles this year and the Steelers last year, and the NFC is really wide open. But I’m partial to the Saints right now.

6. Jonathan Eckmier - January 4, 2007, 10:52 PM

Hey Rockwell. I too think the Saints are the team to beat in the NFC at this point. My comment about the Eagles was just that the other teams in the playoffs need to watch out for them. If there’s ever been a team “getting hot” at the right time, the Eagles fit that description.

7. Jose - January 8, 2007, 3:21 PM

I must say you are awesome on predicting the winners. You guided me and earned me 6 lunches from my co-workers! Thank you.

8. Jonathan Eckmier - January 8, 2007, 3:24 PM

Ha! That’s excellent Jose! You’re very welcome, and hey, if you end up winning some big money sometime, feel free to send some my way, I won’t mind. ;)

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