Super Bowl Prediction(s)

January 30, 2007, 8:19 PM | 8 Comments

Wow, does anyone else feel like it’s been an awfully long two weeks? Everything that the Colts and Bears have worked for this season all comes down to this. Sunday in Miami, the Colts and Bears will face off in Super Bowl XLI in what is bound to be the potential defining moment in Peyton Manning’s career.

First, I’d like to get a few things off my chest. Over the past several weeks I’ve read and heard various sports writers talk about Manning not being able to win the “big one” and how he’s a choke artist in the playoffs. To me, Manning shed that title after leading his team to a comeback victory over the Patriots in the AFC Championship game 2 weeks ago. Unfortunately for Manning, if he doesn’t win XLI this Sunday, none of that will matter and that gorilla that was on his back before that spectacular AFC Championship game will hop right back on according to most of the sports media.

Another thing that’s been bothering me lately is how boring a lot of the media is saying this Super Bowl is going to be. It may very well turn out to be a boring game, but shouldn’t we at least wait until after the game to assess that? Most people who are die hard football fans should be able to watch the game regardless of which teams are involved and find something to be interested about.

I’d also like to just offer up a short apology. I had intended to write a bit of a Super Bowl preview post during the “off” week last week, but between coming down with a cold and being extremely busy at work and at home, it just didn’t happen. I was at the point last week where I hated the internets and everything about it, so I just couldn’t pull it together to write that post. Anyways, to anyone who was expecting that entry or waiting for it, I’m sorry that I couldn’t get it posted and I’m sorry for any confusion it might have caused.

Last season, I correctly predicted that the Steelers would win Super Bowl XL and that Hines Ward would be named the Super Bowl MVP. Sadly, the majority of readers who took part in last year’s poll incorrectly predicted that the Seahawks would win, so I’m interested to see what kind of success we can have this year?!

Let’s get down to bidness:

All season long the Chicago Bears had been at the top of the NFC. Early on, they established themselves as the team to beat and up until December they remained on that perch. Unfortunately for the Bears (and their fans), they’ve started to show some major flaws over the past 2 months and not many people are giving them the upper hand when it comes to prediction the outcome of this game.

Still, you have to respect the fact that they are the NFC’s best record at 15-3 and you have to respect their defense and special teams, which have basically carried this team the entire season. Rex Grossman has taken a lot of heat over the past 2 months and even though he’s deserved it, he’s still found a way to win to not lose. Against the Saints in the NFC Championship game, Grossman showed flashes of “good Rex” and flashes of “bad Rex” – so no one’s really sure which Rex is going to show up on Sunday.

The Bears defense is going to need to come together and show that dominance that they had at the start of the year if they want to contain the high powered Colts offense. To me, that’s basically what it comes down to. The Bears are probably going to be able to score points on Indy’s D as long as “good Rex” shows up, so it’s really on their Defense to win this game for them. Offense wins games, Defense wins championships. Cliché yes, but for the Bears, it’s the truth.

Over on the other sideline, Peyton Manning is going to be as prepared as humanly possible for this game, maybe even more. If there’s one thing I admire about Manning it’s his dedication to study and prepare for each game as if was the Super Bowl. Whether it’s an early pre-season scrimmage or the AFC Championship, no one works harder than Manning. Now that he’s in the Super Bowl, you can bet that he spent a ridiculous amount of time in his film room during that extra week off last week getting a head start on his game plan and if I were Chicago’s defense, I’d forget about spending any time livin’ it up in Miami this week.

For the Colts, defense might win them a championship if it can play as well as it did in the first 2 games of the playoffs (and the 4^th quarter of the AFC Championship game). If the Colts D can hold the Bears using their “bend but don’t break” philosophy and the Colts offense can play the way everyone knows they can, Manning and the Colts could be well on their way to some championship rings by the time Prince takes the stage for the half time show. (side-note: does anyone want to see this year’s halftime show?)

Indianapolis’ offense is going to have to have the type of game that they had (in the 2nd half) 2 weeks ago in the AFC Championship. Marvin Harrison is going to have to get out of his playoff slump. Addai and Rhodes will be their usual selves. Against the Patriots, Manning had a lot of success when he spread the ball out to multiple different targets (9 to be exact). Dallas Clark has been great so far this post-season, but he’ll need to make sure he catches the easy passes and not just the highlight reel ones. One other target is Reggie Wayne, who has been lights out lately. With teams focusing so much attention on Harrison, Wayne and Clark have been free to create space for Manning to deliver the ball to them and the Colts have had great success doing that.

So, what do I think? Well, I think the Colts are going to win. I’m not expecting a shootout, but I’m not expecting a snore-fest either. I will say this though, if there’s one area the Bears defense has struggled lately, it’s been in the secondary. In the NFC Championship, Drew Brees was able to rack up over 350 yards through the air, and that doesn’t bode well for the Bears when they’re playing Manning and Co.

Away	Home	Comments	Pick	Result
Colts (15-4)	Bears (15-3)	See below:
148 days ago I picked the Colts as Super Bowl XLI champs in my season kick-off post and I don’t intend on changing that pick now. Sure, there were times when I thought they would definitely prove me wrong, but they’ve made it to the show and I have to go with the Colts. It really is “now or never” time for Indianapolis because there is a lot of uncertainty swirling around regarding next season. This is arguably not the best Colts team of the past 3 or 4 years, but they’ve made it and their time has come. I expect Manning and the gang to be fully aware of the fact that this may be their only shot and I expect that they’ll be up to the task.
Bonus Pick - Super Bowl MVP: Peyton Manning.

So what do you think? Place your vote in the poll above and post your comments on who you think will win and why. Also, give me your thoughts on Super Bowl week… are you excited for the game or could you care less now that your team is out? 

Here’s what ESPN’s Experts think. Also, be sure to check back after the game for updates and closing thoughts.

Update: Completely non-Super Bowl related, but I just had to point out that Brett Favre will be returning to play for the Packers in 2007. This is great news for the Packers and something that personally makes me very happy. I’m really excited now for next season… hopefully Packers GM Ted Thompson will go out and get some great players this off-season so Favre and the Packers can make a good run next year.

Update: Well, it was a pretty good game. Lots of action, lots of turnovers and it really could have gone either way up until mid-way through the 3^rd quarter when the Bears looked like they just ran out of gas. It was nice to finish the season again on a high note by correctly picking the Super Bowl champs and the Super Bowl MVP. Kudos to the majority of those that took part in the poll too, correctly predicting the Colts win as well. It’s been a great year and I’ve had a lot of fun picking the games and having some good football talk with all the readers who have posted their thoughts. I finished the playoffs with a nice 9-2 (.818) record and added to my regular season total of 160-96 (.625) to finish the year at a respectable (if I do say so myself) 169-98 (.638). In the coming days I’ll be posting a “2006-2007 season thoughts” post just to sum up the way I saw this season on the whole. I can’t promise when it will be because I’m going to be pretty busy, but hopefully it’ll come sooner rather than later. Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to go pack for my trip.

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