September 18, 2007

NFL Week 3 Predictions

September 18, 2007, 10:05 PM | 7 Comments

After starting strong in week 1, I had hoped to fair a little better than the 10-6 record I posted last week, but in my defense, there were a lot of surprises in week 2. This week will probably be no different because the schedule has a lot of games on it that I’m really unsure about. On paper, it’s just a breeding ground for surprising finishes.

The first 2 weeks have been pretty fun to watch, but there have been many interesting developments. The Packers, Lions, Texans, Redskins and 49ers are all surprises at 2-0 while the Rams, Saints, Eagles, Giants, Chiefs, and Jets are all 0-2, which is equally surprising. I’m obviously happy about the Packers, but who would’ve thought that the Redskins would be on top (at least, sharing the lead) of the NFC East in the early going and that the Saints would start the season with a thud? I certainly didn’t.

Game of the Week: Cowboys at Bears

Tony Romo is starting to look every bit as good as people in Dallas said he was going to be. With Terrell Owens and Jason Witten as his primary weapons, the Cowboys have burst out of the gate this year scoring 82 points in their first 2 games. Yes, they’ve given up 55 points during that same time-frame, but they’re doing what they need to do to win: score and score often.

The Bears defense has been pretty good so far, so they’ll make Dallas’s job a little more difficult than the Giants and Dolphins have, but the problem with the Bears right now is that their offense hasn’t been very good and they’re not scoring many points. Rex Grossman’s stats don’t look good either, and for the most part, as Rex Grossman goes, so do the Bears.

Whatever happens, this game will be a whole lot of fun to watch. Every week the marquee match-up is on Sunday Night Football and I can’t help but think about how far the Monday Night Football franchise’s star has fallen. ESPN really got screwed with their MNF package because they pay more money than NBC does, and NBC always has the better game and the flex option as the season wears on to make sure it stays that way. Poor ESPN.

Here are my picks for week 3! Record after week 2: 22-10.

Away	Home	Comments	Pick	Result
Chargers (1-2)	Packers (3-0)	As much as I love the 2-0 start from the Packers, I just can’t pick them to beat the Chargers. I’m hopeful, and I’d really love to get this pick wrong, but I just don’t see Green Bay taking out San Diego.
49ers (2-1)	Steelers (3-0)	If the 49ers can get the type of pressure on Ben Roethlisberger this week that they did on Marc Bulger last week in St. Louis, they might have a shot to beat the Steelers. Two words from St. Louis’ injury report last week though… Orlando Pace.
Bills (0-3)	Patriots (3-0)	New England’s shellacking of the Chargers last week went a long way to quiet down all the talk about how much their spying has or has not helped them. With or without any additional competitive advantages though, this team is scary on paper… and so far has been performing as expected.
Vikings (1-2)	Chiefs (1-2)	I think this is a risky pick, but I’ll take Kansas City for this one. If it weren’t for a blocked field goal and a guy by the name of Devin Hester, the Chiefs could have won last week in Chicago. The Vikings could win this one as well, but the Chiefs need the win more because if they lose this game and start 0-3, they’ll be pretty much out of it in the AFC West.
Lions (2-1)	Eagles (1-2)	Offensively the Eagles have looked horrible in the first 2 games of this season so far. They’ve had over 22 offensive possessions and have only scored 1 touchdown and that just won’t cut it in the NFL. The problem with the Eagles offense (in my opinion) is that it’s too one-dimensional. There’s too much focus on Brian Westbrook and defenses know that. Even after all those points, I’m still going to take the Eagles to win this week for no other reason than, like the Chiefs, they have to.
Rams (0-3)	Buccaneers (2-1)	The Rams obviously miss Orlando Pace on their O-line. Marc Bulger was sacked 6 times last week and the Rams are struggling. If the Buccaneers can get that kind of pressure on Bulger, it’ll be another long day at the office for St. Louis. The Rams really don’t look to be any better to me than the Saints (who the Bucs beat last week), so I’ll take the Bucs this week for another win.
Dolphins (0-3)	Jets (1-2)	The Jets have started their 2007 campaign by losing their first 2 games against 2 very tough opponents in New England and Baltimore. This week though, they finally get to play a team that they should be able to beat, so I think they’ll get the win and help Miami keep their place at the bottom of the AFC East.
Cardinals (1-2)	Ravens (2-1)	It’s nice that the Cardinals gave their home fans something to cheer about on Sunday, but it’s going to be a lot harder of a task to silence the home crowd in Baltimore this week. Last week the Ravens offense scored 20 points behind Kyle Boller and should be able to better that number this week against the Cards.
Colts (3-0)	Texans (2-1)	It’s been a pretty surprising start for the Texans this year. Matt Schaub is making everyone in Atlanta feel silly (or mad, if you’re a Falcons fan) and the Texans somehow have stared 2-0 for the first time in franchise history. That said, I still have no compelling reason to pick the Texans to beat the Colts this week. It could happen, but it’s not likely, especially with the knee injury to Schaub’s primary target, WR Andre Johnson.
Browns (1-2)	Raiders (1-2)	Last week I was kicking myself for writing “Until the Raiders win a game, I won’t be picking them to win… regardless of who they’re playing” before actually looking at their upcoming game this week against the Browns. That feeling subsided when I saw the shootout that took place in Cleveland last week.
Bengals (1-2)	Seahawks (2-1)	The Seahawks lost tough one to the Cardinals last week and the Bengals were embarrassed by the Browns, but at least the Bengals offense played well… right? This is going to be another tough game for Cincinnati against the Seahawks in Seattle, but I think they should be able to get the job done.
Jaguars (2-1)	Broncos (2-1)	Nice to see the Jaguars finally beat a team that they should beat last week in Atlanta, but they only scored 13 points. They’ll need to do better than that to beat the Broncos, especially in Denver, and I don’t really see that happening.
Panthers (2-1)	Falcons (0-3)	The Falcons this week signed 47-year-old kicker Morten Anderson and ex-Jags QB Byron Leftwich. Their old kicker has already been shown the door and it looks like the Harrington era in Atlanta is about to come to a close as well. The Panthers need some consistency and should be able to start building that this week.
Giants (1-2)	Redskins (2-1)	This is a tough game to pick. The Redskins have looked really good on defense so far this season, but it’s been against 2 teams whose offenses haven’t been great (the Eagles and Dolphins). On offense, Jason Campbell is starting to look comfortable in the starting QB role and they seem to be doing just enough to win. The Giants look like they’re lacking any shred of team chemistry right now and I think until they get that problem figured out, it’s going to be a very tough season. This one could go either way, so it’s a toss-up.
Cowboys (3-0)	Bears (1-2)	So far Dallas has looked pretty dominant on offense but they’ve played against 2 very average (or agruably below average) teams. This week will be their first real test of the 2007 season and I’ll be watching for 2 things. Terrell Owens usually performs well on the national stage, as did Tony Romo last season except for that one botched snap that ended their chances in the playoffs. I think the Cowboys might be able to take this one away from the Bears (whose offense has struggled) and that TE Jason Witten will have a big game with Chicago focusing a lot of attention on T.O.
Titans (2-1)	Saints (0-3)	After suffering a tough loss to the Colts on opening night, the Saints had 9 full days to prepare for the Buccaneers and then proceeded to get blown out. I don’t know if I’m totally ready to give up on the Saints, but I’m really close. On the flip side of that coin, the Titans are a team that has impressed me so far this season and I think they could possibly pull out this victory… for some reason, my gut tells me they will.

So there you have them, my fearless somewhat hesitant predictions for week 3. So far, I’m fairing pretty well when compared to the Expert Picks at ESPN, but I’d like to separate myself a little bit more this week. We’ll see what happens though, because as I said before, this week looks a little crazy.

Update: 11-5 this week to bring my total up to 33-15. I’m so glad I got that Chargers/Packers pick wrong, it’s nice to see the Pack get off to such a good start this season and I’m really hoping they can continue with their momentum… also, shout outs to Favre for tying Marino’s TD record! All in all, not a bad week. Check back Tuesday for week 4.

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