December 27, 2007

NFL Week 17 Predictions

December 27, 2007, 9:01 AM | 5 Comments

Last week’s 11-5 record brought my season total up to 163-77 heading into the final week of the regular season. It’s not a bad percentage (.679), but I was hoping to fair a little better this year.

It’s been a pretty busy week for me with the Christmas holidays, so my apologies for the late entry. With that in mind, I will again try and keep this week’s post a little shorter so I can get my picks up as soon as possible. There are really just 2 or 3 things that I’d like to touch on, so I’ll dive right in.

League MVP

This year has seen some stunning performances by several individuals, and it’s probably going to make the MVP voting a little more difficult than expected. I have 5 candidates that I think are deserving of at least some recognition on the ballots. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Randy Moss and Adrian Peterson. My pick would have to be for Favre, although it’s actually a tough argument to make given the season that Brady has had. I’ll get into it a bit more later, but I’d also like to know what you think, so my final poll for the regular season will be for your vote for MVP. Cast your vote and then let me know your reasoning by posting a comment.

So, why Favre over Brady? Well, again, it’s a very close decision in my mind and I think the associated press will give it to Brady, who is certainly deserving. I give it to Favre though because he’s guided his team (the youngest team in the NFL by the way) to a 12-3 record, the NFC North championship and a playoff bye – which is a far cry from what anyone expected this season. Favre has had one of his best statistical seasons ever and has shown the football world that he’s still got what it takes to lead a team and play the quarterback position in the NFL.

Favre also wins the “more with less” award, and I think that should play into the voting. I don’t want to take away from what the Packers offense has been able to accomplish this season, or from the talent that they possess, but it takes a good leader to be able to utilize that talent and really draw it out of his team mates, and I think Favre has done that this year. No one expected it, myself included. What the Patriots and Tom Brady have done this year was (at least somewhat) expected from the beginning of training camp, so it’s not surprising that the Pats are once again dominating the NFL. The only unexpected thing about the Pats this year is that spotless 15-0 record, but I think that points more to the coaching staff and the entire team than it does to any one individual.

Again, my guess is that Brady wins it this season and it wouldn’t be a bad pick by any stretch of the imagination. I just give the edge to Favre. Call me a homer, that’s OK by me, but keep in mind that I think I could also make a very good case for Peyton Manning to win another MVP award over Brady as well. Neither will happen, but I think Favre and Manning definitely deserve some vote recognition.

Sitting Starters

I think this should be a simple decision. For teams that have a first-round bye, don’t do it. Put yourself in a position to go into the playoffs with momentum. Look at the ‘05 Colts for an example of why. You don’t want to rest for 2 weeks in a row because rust will form and it’ll take a half for the team to come back to life, which may be too late. If you must rest your starters, only do so if they’ve already put your team in a virtual no-lose situation (up by 21+ going into the 4^th quarter).

For teams that do not have the first round bye but have already qualified for playoffs, go for it. You’ve got nothing to gain anymore, so treat it like the last pre-season game and pull your starters after the first few series, especially if they’re nursing injuries. The only exception to this would be for the Cowboys, because they’ve got so many injury concerns.

Game of the Week: Patriots at Giants

OK, so I pulled this from the “state the obvious” department, but really, you need to watch this game. History could will be made on Saturday Night Football and my hat goes off to the NFL for making the decision to allow CBS and NBC to simulcast this game that is being broadcast by the NFL Network. I personally like the NFL Network (who probably have the nicest production of any of the networks doing NFL games right now) and have no trouble getting it, but I understand the pains of those who don’t. Great decision by Roger Goodell to allow as many fans as possible the chance to view history. It’s good for the game, it’s good for the fans and it’s good for the teams involved.

Oh, and don’t be surprised if Tom Brady makes some history of his own this weekend – he’s just 1 TD pass away from tying Peyton Manning’s single-season record of 49. Expect Brady to pass it with at least 2 TD tosses in this one.

Here are my picks for the final week of the 2007-2008 NFL Regular Season!

Away	Home	Comments	Pick	Result
Patriots (16-0!)	Giants (10-6)	History is about to be made. Watch.
Seahawks (10-6)	Falcons (4-12)	Will the Hawks leave their starters in long enough to seal a win? Maybe, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they still lose on the road.
Saints (7-9)	Bears (7-9)	After last week’s strong showing against the Packers, I don’t expect the Bears defense to let up this week.
49ers (5-11)	Browns (10-6)	The Browns should still make the playoffs, but they need to win to have any chance.
Lions (7-9)	Packers (13-3)	If you watched last week’s broadcast, they touched on a very interesting point. Favre’s numbers over the past 5 or 6 games with 34º temperatures or lower aren’t very good. Maybe the Packers are better off if they have to play Dallas again in Big D.
Jaguars (11-5)	Texans (8-8)	Who wants to face the Jaguars? They’ve had an impressive season in my books – expect more national attention (and prime time games) next season.
Bengals (7-9)	Dolphins (1-15)	If only the Ravens hadn’t coughed up that win to the Dolphins, we’d be looking at 2 historical opposites in the same year. Anyways, Bengals should win. Should.
Bills (7-9)	Eagles (8-8)	Will this be Donovan McNabb’s last game in Philly? My take: yes. He should go out with a win though.
Panthers (7-9)	Buccaneers (9-7)	I’ll take the Bucs in a close one. For the Panthers, will John Fox return as their head coach next season? My take: undecided.
Cowboys (13-3)	Redskins (9-7)	The Cowboys don’t really have anything to play for this week. Yes, it’s a tight rivalry that they’ll want to win, but don’t be surprised if the emotion level is higher on the Washington side of the field. Without TO, the Cowboys offense is entirely different and because of injuries, I think the Redskins could win this game and actually make it into the playoffs.
Rams (3-13)	Cardinals (8-8)	8-8 for the Cardinals is a definite possibility this Sunday as they take on the Rams in Arizona. It’s not exactly what they were hoping, but it’s a step in the right direction for a perpetually bad franchise.
Vikings (8-8)	Broncos (7-9)	Last week’s loss was a tough one for Minnesota that may have cost them their chance at making the playoffs this season. I think they’ll win, but I wouldn’t be surprised either way. Regardless of what happens though, the Vikings are set up for success as long as they can either find a good QB, or develop Tavaris Jackson into one.
Chargers (11-5)	Raiders (4-12)	10-5 is a great spot for the Chargers after starting the year with so much disappointment. They should win this one handily.
Chiefs (4-12)	Jets (4-12)	Herm Edwards returns to New York to play in what might be the stinker of the week. This one’s a toss-up, but I’ll go with KC.
Steelers (10-6)	Ravens (5-11)	I’m honestly bored with both of these teams.
Titans (10-6)	Colts (13-3)	Don’t expect the Colts to just allow Tennessee to walk into the Playoffs, that’s just not how you treat a division rival.

Don’t forget to check out this week’s ESPN Expert Picks.

Update: Well, 9-7 isn’t how I wanted to finish off, but week 16 is usually a crap-shoot. So, my regular season has finished off with a pretty decent 172-84 record, which is good for 67.2%. That’s not too bad, but not quite as good as I was hoping for. With that said, a look back in history would show that this has been my best regular season yet! Check back on Tuesday for my Wild Card predictions!

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